Regular Season Wrap-Up

Standings:
1. CMart (7-8-1; 131-115-10; 6)
2. Hankles (8-7-1; 127-119-10; 4)
2. E-On (7-8-1; 127-119-10; 4)
4. Ty (6-9-1; 111-106-10; 2.5)
5. Dav (7-8-1; 125-121-10; 2)
6. PhilG (11-4-1; 120-126-10; -3)
7. Flip (4-11-1; 112-133-10; -11)
8. Ham (6-9-1; 105-141-10; -18)

The regular season has finished. The playoff pickem is about to begin.

Big Props to CMart for winning the regular season. 256 picks. More successful than not. That is quite an accomplishment.

Big Props to BleedCubbieBlue for their victory over Bad Newz Kennels in the Fantasy Finals. It was fun watching the games with you Miguel.

Details will come for playoff pickem but it will basically be more of the same.

Week 17 Picks

Unanimous:
Cincinnati (-3) over MIAMI

Near Unanimous:
New England (-13.5) over NY GIANTS [Tyler is a fat winner]
TAMPA BAY (+2.5) over Carolina [Hankles likes the favorite]
Pittsburgh (-3) over BALTIMORE [PhilG likes the Ravens]
San Diego (-9) over OAKLAND [Ham likes the home finale]
ARIZONA (-6.5) over St. Louis [Flip likes the Rams...]

Week 17 Lines

New England (-13.5) NY GIANTS

PHILADELPHIA (-7.5) Buffalo

Carolina (-2.5) TAMPA BAY

Cincinnati (-3) MIAMI

WASHINGTON (-9) Dallas

GREEN BAY (-4) Detroit

HOUSTON (-6) Jacksonville

New Orleans (-2) CHICAGO

Pittsburgh (-3) BALTIMORE

ATLANTA (-1) Seattle

CLEVELAND (-10) San Francisco

Tennessee (-6) INDIANAPOLIS

Minnesota (-3) DENVER

San Diego (-9) OAKLAND

ARIZONA (-6.5) St. Louis

NY JETS (-6) Kansas City

Week 16 Review

Merry Christmas to all. Hope your holidays have been safe and refreshing.

Tough week out there for the pick'em crew with other things on our mind. Props to Tyler for the best week 11-4-1.

We are down to the home stretch! One week left until the playoffs. Time for the regular season champion to be crowned.

Standings:
1. CMart (124-107-9; 5-10-1; 6.5)
2. E-on (120-111-9; 8-7-1; 4.5)
3. TyMart (105-97-9; 11-4-1; 4)
4. Miguel (119-112-9; 3.5)
5. Dav (118-113-9; 2.5)
6. PhilG (109-122-9; -6.5)
7. FMS (108-123-9; -7.5)
8. Ham (99-132-9; 6-9-1; -16.5)

So much can happen this week.

Literally, anyone in the top five can win. Phil and Flip can chase .500 seasons (15-1 for Phil, 16-0 for Flip). Four of us are separated by 1.5 games. And, there's always the weekly honors. On top of all that, there's the playoffs.

So, with that in mind, here are the week's early lines.

Picks must be in for ALL GAMES by Saturday afternoon. Please do it immediately when you can.


New England (-14.5) NY GIANTS
PHILADELPHIA (-7.5) Buffalo
Carolina (-2.5) TAMPA BAY
Cincinnati (-3) MIAMI
WASHINGTON (-8.5) Dallas
GREEN BAY (-3.5) Detroit
HOUSTON (-6.5) Jacksonville
New Orleans (-2.5) CHICAGO
Pittsburgh (-3.5) BALTIMORE
ATLANTA (-2.5) Seattle
CLEVELAND (-10) San Francisco
Tennessee (-6) INDIANAPOLIS
Minnesota (-3) DENVER
San Diego (-8) OAKLAND
ARIZONA (-6.5) St. Louis
NY JETS (-6) Kansas City

Week 15 Results

Very tough week out there for the Pick'em Crew. Exactly zero pickers had a winning week. That's the first time that has happened.

Props to the 'Lotus Lane' Boys who tied for the best record this week, both Flip and Hankles at 8-8.

The standings have tightened up nicely (TWSS!).

1. CMart (LW: 6-10; Ov: 119-97-8; +11)
2. Hankles (LW: 8-8; Ov: 113-103-; +5)
3. E-On (LW: 5-11; Ov: 112-104-8; +4)
4. Dav (LW: 6-10; Ov: 111-105-8; +3)
5. Ty (LW: 1-0; Ov: 94-93-8; +0.5)
6. PhilG (LW: 4-12; Ov: 104-112-8; -4)
7. FMS (LW: 8-8; Ov: 101-115-8; -7)
8. Ham (LW: 5-11; Ov: 93-123-8; -15)

Truly, anyone's game. We can all still mathematically finish above .500.

In other news, please login to Yahoo and do the College Football Bowl Pickem! Bragging rights are on the line!

Week 15 Picks

Unanimous:
Cincinnati (-8) over SF [We're all LOSERS!]
Baltimore (-3) over MIAMI
Green Bay (-9.5) over ST LOUIS
Indianapolis (-10.5) over OAKLAND

Near Unanimous:
Denver (+1) over HOUSTON [Only Tyler picked the Texans]
TAMPA BAY (-12) over Atlanta [Only Dav likes the Falcons to rally through adversity]
Seattle (-7) over CAROLINA [Only Dav likes the home Panthers]
DALLAS (-10) over Philadelphia [Only Hankles likes the Iggles]

Week Fifteen Lines

HOUSTON (-1) Denver
Cincinnati (-8) SAN FRANCISCO
NEW ORLEANS (-3.5) Arizona
TAMPA BAY (-12) Atlanta
Baltimore (-3) MIAMI
CLEVELAND (-5.5) Buffalo
Green Bay (-9.5) ST LOUIS
PITTSBURGH (-4) Jacksonville
NEW ENGLAND (-24.5) Ny Jets
Seattle (-7) CAROLINA
Tennessee (-4) KANSAS CITY
Indianapolis (-10.5) OAKLAND
SAN DIEGO (-9.5) Detroit
DALLAS (-10) Philadelphia
NY GIANTS (-4) Washington
MINNESOTA (-9.5) Chicago

Week 14 Results

What a Week to Get Healthy!

In a week where the favorites went 12-4, our pickem crew posted our finest week yet. We all deserve a collective pat on the back for a combined record this week of 88-40! In the words of Jim Rome, that is FEEE-nominal.

As stated, props to FMS, Dav and CMart for record setting 13-3 weeks. Hankles follows right behind with a 12-4 slate. And PhilG and Ham post otherwise exceptional 11-5 marks.

With three regular season weeks left, here are the standings:

1. CMart (LW: 13-3; Ov: 113-87-8; +13)
2. E-On (LW: 7-9; Ov: 107-93-8; + 7)
3. Dav (LW: 13-3; Ov: 105-95-8; +5)
3. Hankles (LW: 12-4; Ov: 105-95-8; +5)
5. PhilG (LW: 11-5; Ov: 100-100-8; 0)
5. Ty (LW: 8-8; Ov: 93-93-8; 0)
7. Flip (LW: 13-3; Ov: 93-107-8; -7)
8. Ham (LW: 11-5; 88-112-8; -12)

It truly is anyone's game. Remember, post-season pickem is right around the corner.

For picks this week, please remember we have Thursday night games, Saturday night games, Sunday games and Monday games. Picks must be in before the games. Will update the spreads more often.

For Thursday:
HOUSTON (-2) Denver

How about the Pat's line?
Currently it is: NEW ENGLAND (-25.5) New York Jets

It's amazing that this line could literally move 5-10 points in either direction from a midweek press conference from Belichick. Can you imagine if he took the mic at Gilettte Stadium tomorrow and said, "We intend to decimate this team for what they did to us in Week 1. We will leave nothing on the field." If that happened, in homage to Steelers backup DB Anthony Smith, I personally guarantee that line would jump to 32 points.

Week 14 Picks

Lot of unanimous and near unanimous selections this week:

Unanimous:
Cleveland (-3.5) over NY JETS
New Orleans (-4.5) over ATLANTA

Near Unanimous:

BUFFALO (-7) over Miami - Only PhilG likes the winless Fins

Ny Giants (+3) over PHILLY - Only Hampton likes the Eagles... hmm... perhaps he knows something about ole Eli that we don't....

GREEN BAY (-10.5) over Oakland - Only PhilG couldn't stomach giving double digit points.

San Diego (+0.5) over TENNESSEE - Only TMart likes the Titans to upset his bro's Chargers

Enjoy football fellas.

Week 14 Lines

WASHINGTON (-3) Chicago

JACKSONVILLE (-10.5) Carolina

Dallas (-10) DETROIT

BUFFALO (-7) Miami

PHILADELPHIA (-3) New York Giants

GREEN BAY (-10.5) Oakland

NEW ENGLAND (-10) Pittsburgh

TENNESSEE (-0.5) San Diego

CINCINNATI (-6) St. Louis

Tampa Bay (-2.5) HOUSTON

SEATTLE (-6.5) Arizona

Minnesota (-8.5) SAN FRANCISCO

Cleveland (-3.5) NEW YORK JETS

DENVER (-6.5) Kansas City

Indianapolis (-9.5) BALTIMORE

New Orleans (-4.5) Atlanta

Week Thirteen Results

Dav went to FedEx Field on Sunday to see the Skins lose in terrible fashion to the Bills. What a sad, somber day. The opening video tribute to the Meast was quite moving. Does anyone have any idea why I might have cried more with the loss of Sean Taylor than I did with my own grandfather? Does that seem strange? I guess the main differences are that my grandfather passed away after a full and robust life at 95, where Sean was murdered at 24. And there is something unique about the 90,000+ people together, sharing collective emotion. That feeling that you are a part of something that is bigger than yourself. Anyway. This is coming from a guy who bawls his eyes out each and every Sunday from 7-8 watching Extreme Makeover: Home Edition.



New Standings:

1. E-on (LW: 9-7; O: 100-84-8; +8)
1. CMart (LW: 8-8; O: 100-84-8; +8)
3. Miguel (LW: 8-8; O: 93-91-8; +1)
4. Dav (LW: 9-7; O: 92-92-8; E)
4. TyMart (LW: 6-10; O: 85-85-8; E)
6. PhilG (LW: 6-10; O: 89-95-8; -3)
7. Flip (LW: 9-7; O: 80-104-8; -12)
8. Ham (LW: 3-13; O: 77-107-8; -15)

As you can see, we have a dogfight at the top, in the middle and at the bottom. Anything can happen.

Also remember, don't think the DPC ends at the regular season. Sure it's great to win the regular season, but it's the playoffs that matter. Those 11 pickem games will separate the men from the boys.

Free Note:
There's a great pickem resource site out there:
Sunday Strategy
It aggregates all the standings, etc. Definitely worth a bookmark.

• For example, do you know the Bills while 6-6 are 8-4 Against the Spread, with a 5-1 mark when they are a home underdog?

• Or the best team in football against the spread? The 7-4 Browns are 9-5 ATS.

Not so good bets?

• The 10-2 Colts are only 7-5 considering the points.

• The Bengals are 0-3 as road favorites.

Week Thirteen Lines

DALLAS (-7) Green Bay
ST LOUIS (-2.5) Atlanta
WASHINGTON (-6) Buffalo
MINNESOTA (-3) Detroit
TENNESSEE (-4) Houston
INDIANAPOLIS (-7) Jacksonville
MIAMI (-1) Ny Jets
San Diego (-5) KANSAS CITY
PHILADELPHIA (-3) Seattle
CAROLINA (-2.5) San Francisco
NEW ORLEANS (-3) Tampa Bay
ARIZONA (PK) Cleveland
Denver (-3.5) OAKLAND
Ny Giants (-2) CHICAGO
PITTSBURGH (-7.5) Cincinnati
New England (-20) BALTIMORE

Week Twelve Results

It was a pretty ho-hum week out there, with no poor performances. Props to Ty for bouncing back again over .500.

7-9: E-on and Hankles
8-8: FMS, Dav and H.B.
10-6: PhilG and CMart
11-5: TMart

The favorites this week were 10-6, with the road favorites going 4-1. Only the Titans couldn't close the deal against the home underdog Bengals.

We have a new leader as we start the back nine on Saturday.

New Standings:
1. CMart (+8)
2. E-on (+7)
3. TMart (+2)
4. Hankles (+1)
5. PhilG (-1)
5. Dav (-1)
7. H-B (-10
8. FMS (-13)

Here's an early look at next week's lines. Many of these are not yet set. The final game lines will be sent out Thursday morning. There is a Thursday night game. Please have your picks in accordingly. I will send out the picks Saturday night, as during Sunday morning I'll be tailgating at FedEx Field for the Bills-Redskins tilt at 1PM.

DALLAS (-7) Green Bay
ST LOUIS (?) Atlanta
WASHINGTON (-6) Buffalo
MINNESOTA (-3) Detroit
TENNESSEE (-4) Houston
INDIANAPOLIS (-7) Jacksonville
Ny Jets (?) MIAMI
San Diego (-4.5) KANSAS CITY
PHILADELPHIA (?) Seattle
CAROLINA (-2.5) San Francisco
NEW ORLEANS (-3) Tampa Bay
ARIZONA (-1.5) Cleveland
Denver (-3.5) OAKLAND
Ny Giants (-2) CHICAGO
PITTSBURGH (?) Cincinnati
New England (?) BALTIMORE

Week Twelve Picks

The picks are attached in the email.

Unanimous:
none

Near Unanimous:
Green Bay (-3.5) over DETROIT (Phil took the losers).
KANSAS CITY (-6) over Oakland (Flip took da Raiders)
CLEVELAND (-3.5) over Houston (Ty took the hometown Texans)
Seattle (-3) over ST LOUIS (Flip took the Flipper Anderson Rams)
NY GIANTS (-7) over Minny (Ty took the Vikings)
NEW ENGLAND (-21.5) over Philly (Ty took the Eagles)

Big props to Ty for taking a stand.

Safe travels for those on the road and airways.

Week 12 Lines

Green Bay (-3.5) DETROIT

DALLAS (-14) Ny Jets

Indianapolis (-11.5) ATLANTA

CHICAGO (-2.5) Denver

Tennessee (-1.5) CINCINNATI

JACKSONVILLE (-7.5) Buffalo

KANSAS CITY (-6) Oakland

CLEVELAND (-3.5) Houston

Seattle (-3) ST LOUIS

NY GIANTS (-7) Minnesota

New Orleans (-2) CAROLINA

TAMPA BAY (-3.5) Washington

ARIZONA (-10.5) San Francisco

SAN DIEGO (-9.5) Baltimore

NEW ENGLAND (-21.5) Philadelphia

PITTSBURGH (-16) Miami

Mid Season Summary

Here are the Standings

The Front Runners:
1. E-On (84-68-8; LW 9-6-1; +8 Games Over)
E-On has been a juggernaut with 2 losing weeks out of 11. It's hard to catch someone when they don't have that dismal week. It's interesting to note that E-On was the first to recognize the Bengals just aren't good. He's picked up serious ground in these games, going 7-3 in picking the Bengals weekly matchup.

2. CMart (82-70-8; LW 7-8-1; 6 Games Over)
In hindsight, CMart's first week was legendary. He went 12-3-1 setting a record week bar, that no other player has sniffed at. (The closest best week's are Tyler's 10-3 Week 8; and Phil's 10-3-1 Week 10). Throw out his first week, and he's a pedestrian 1.5 Games above .500. That's the importance of starting strong.

The Middle of the Pack
3. Hankles (78-74-8; LW 8-7-1; 2 Games Over)
Miguel reached his apex after week seven, when he stood at 6.5 games over, only one game behind the leader E-On. After that point, he dropped five games in three weeks, obviously distracted by the fates of the Irish.

4. Dav (75-77-8; LW 8-7-1; 1 Game Under)
Throw out the first two weeks, and Dav is your leader in the standings. After a sluggish start (it takes a while for the bigger guys to get in game shape - look at the Heat and Shaq), Dav has been consistently putting together good months (not weeks). Two or three winning weeks, then a loser, but then back to the winning weeks.

4. Ty (68-70-8; LW 5-10-1; 1 Game Under)
Ty has been snaking over and under the .500 line more than any other picker this season. He's also a picker that either hits big or misses big. 3 game swings back and forth are not out of the usual for Tyler as he has gone from +1 to -2.5 to +1 to +2 to +1.5 to -1 in the past six weeks.

6. Landes (73-79-8; LW 7-8-1; 3 Games Under)
Speaking of folks who hit big and miss big there's PhilG. We sounded the death knell after his 1-13 Week 9 Performance. But he shakes it off and bounces back with a 10-3-1 Week 10. Phil has also picked the Bengals in all games but one. Knowing his sneakiness, he's still very much alive.

The Race for the First Draft Pick:
7. Ham-Bone (66-86-8; LW 8-7-1; 10 Games Under)
Ham's slow start lasted a little longer than Dav's but he's been the best picker over the most brutal last four week stretch. Over the past four weeks, he's held his own, picking 30-27. The rest of us combined are -11.5 Games Under.

8. F.M.S (63-89-8; LW 3-12-1; 13 Games Under)
FlipModeSquad has had a couple rough weeks. Blame that on the temporary custodian of DPC (PhilG). But the beauty of the pickem challenge is that anyone can bounce back, any given week. Here's hoping some home cooking with the 48 pound Anderson family turkey brings FMS some good luck.

Week Ten Lines

TENNESSEE (-4) Jacksonville

KANSAS CITY (-3.5) Denver

Buffalo (-3) MIAMI

PITTSBURGH (-9.5) Cleveland

NEW ORLEANS (-12) St. Louis

CAROLINA (-4.5) Atlanta

WASHINGTON (-3) Philadelphia

GREEN BAY (-6) Minnesota

BALTIMORE (-4.5) Cincinnati

Chicago (-3) OAKLAND

Dallas (-1) NY GIANTS

ARIZONA (-1) Detroit

Indianapolis (-3.5) SAN DIEGO

SEATTLE (-9.5) San Francisco

Week Nine Results

As Phil hinted in his email, he did have a historically rough week. 1-13! Yowsers! He went from being even at .500 to being 6 games below. Hankles is happy that PhilG's bad week hid the spotlight from his 4-10 performance. Consistency is the name of the game, boys. It seems that the leaders are those that can avoid the disaster week. First place E-on has suffered only one losing week, a respectable 5-6-2 slate in Week 6. Second place ChrisM has suffered only two losing weeks, the worst of which coming in Week 2.

Continued props to Dav who had the best week (9-5) for the second week in a row. After a horrendous start, he's scratched his way back to .500.

The Bengals let us down again. Is it time to start tanking to make a run at LSU's Glenn Dorsey or UVA's Chris Long? How about driving a dumptruck full of cash to Coach Cowher's Raleigh doorstep?

Standings:
Frank 8
ChrisM 7
MartinT 2
Hanley 2
Badanes 0
Landes -6
Anderson -7
Hampton -11

A quick look at next week. Look at the lines. I guarantee the Pats wont cover.

TENNESSEE (-3) Jacksonville

KANSAS CITY (-3) Denver

Buffalo (-3) MIAMI

PITTSBURGH (-9.5) Cleveland

NEW ORLEANS (-12) St. Louis

CAROLINA (-4.5) Atlanta

WASHINGTON (-3) Philadelphia

GREEN BAY (-6.5) Minnesota

BALTIMORE (-5.5) Cincinnati

Chicago (-3) OAKLAND

Dallas (-1) NY GIANTS

Detroit (PK) ARIZONA

Indianapolis (-3.5) SAN DIEGO

SEATTLE (-9.5) San Francisco

The Virtual Bookie

Phil $3620
Mike $7550
Dav $8400
Martin $9700
Ian $11850
Ham $5950

Any virtual bets out there this week? NBA included if you want.

Week Nine Picks

The week nine picks are attached in the email. I hope everyone enjoys Super Bowl 41.5!

Unanimous Selections:
Cincinnati (-1) over BUFFALO
Seattle (+2) over CLEVELAND

Near Unanimous Selections:
Washington (-3.5) over NY JETS (Only Tyler likes the Jets)
TAMPA BAY (-3.5) over Arizona (Only PhilG likes the Cards)
San Diego (-7) over MINNESOTA (Only Flip likes the Six Rulers)

Game of the Century:
New England (-4.5) over INDIANAPOLIS
ChrisA, DaveB, IanF, MikeH, PhilL, ChrisM

INDIANAPOLIS (+4.5) over New England
TylerM, MattH

Enjoy the games! Post bets if you want on Dav's Challenge!

Week Nine Lines

Washington (-3.5) NY JETS

KANSAS CITY (-2) Green Bay

TAMPA BAY (-3.5) Arizona

TENNESSEE (-4.5) Carolina

ATLANTA (-3) San Francisco

NEW ORLEANS (-3.5) Jacksonville

DETROIT (-3) Denver

Cincinnati (-1) BUFFALO

San Diego (-7) MINNESOTA

CLEVELAND (-2) Seattle

New England (-4.5) INDIANAPOLIS

OAKLAND (-3) Houston

Dallas (-3) PHILADELPHIA

PITTSBURGH (-8.5) Baltimore

Very interesting note:
The Cincy-Buffalo line started with Buffalo as a 1.5 point favorite. The line has moved 2.5 points in Buffalo's direction due to heavy betting on the Bengals. Looks like the betting world thinks much more highly on Cincinnati than Vegas does.

College line of the week:
NOTRE DAME (-3.5) Navy
The Domers are only a .5 points better than Navy when factoring in the three point Home Field Advantage. Who's your pick?

lsu (-7) ALABAMA
ucla (-2.5) ARIZONA STATE
BOSTON COLLEGE (-6.5) fsu

Remember to post your faux-gambling bets in the comments on this blog.

Week Eight Results

Props to Tyler for having the best week out there; after a week off in Week 7, he went 10-3 in Week 8. Big props to Ty.

Props to Dav. Consistency is the name of the game. Over the past four weeks, he has the best record.

Standings
Frank 8
ChrisM 6
Hanley 5
Tyler 1
Phil L 0
DaveB -2
ChrisA -6
Matt -11

Interesting point of the week:
If the only mechanism you used for picking games was to pick Patriots (8-0 ATS) and the underdogs (57-51-6 ATS), you would be 65-43-6, which is 11 games above .500. That would put you in first place in our pickem challenge, three games ahead of E-on. Sometimes, it's easier than you think...

The Game of the Century opened with the Colts as 3.5 point home underdogs. Heavy betting on the Pats pushed the line a whole point to 4.5. It could move to a whole touchdown and I wouldn't be scared. After getting burned three times thinking, hey, there's no way that the Pats can cover that number, I'm taking them every time. As Miguel said, ride that horse till it bucks you off.

Early Look at Week 9 Lines:
Washington (-3.5) NY JETS
Green Bay (NL) KANSAS CITY
TAMPA BAY (-3.5) Arizona
TENNESSEE (-4.5) Carolina
ATLANTA (-3) San Francisco
NEW ORLEANS (-3.5) Jacksonville
DETROIT (NL) Denver
BUFFALO (-2) Cincinnati
San Diego (-7) MINNESOTA
CLEVELAND (-2) Seattle
New England (-4.5) INDIANAPOLIS
OAKLAND (-3) Houston
Dallas (-3) PHILADELPHIA
PITTSBURGH (-9) Baltimore

Week Eight Picks

Attached in the email are all the week eight picks.

There's a lot of division out there over what will happen this week. Out of 13 games, four were picked evenly (4-4) by the pickem crew, six games were picked 5-3, one 6-2, and two 7-1.

Everyone's favorite section, Unanimous Selections:

Cleveland (-3) over ST LOUIS (Only Phil likes the Rams)
Ny Giants (-9) over MIAMI (London) (Only Hampton likes the Fins)

Have fun out there today fellas.

The Virtual Bookie, pt. 2

Here are the standings:

Phil $9,120.
Martin $9,700.
Dav $6,000.
Ian $11,850.
Ham $5,950.
Mike $8,250.

Any bets out there this weekend?

Vs. 500 Standings

Week Seven Results

Big week out there for pickem players to get healthy. We went a combined 56-42. That's solid. That's the second best combined week. All pickem players except one had a winning record.

Tip of the pickem cap to Miguel.

Mike went 10-4 to narrow the gap on first place E-On to one game.

He also dominated Phil in Fantasy Football to advance to 7-0. Watch out for bleedcubbieblue.

On the virtual gambling front, a post coming later.

Frank 7.5
Hanley 6.5
Martin 5.5
Landes 2.5
Tyler -2.5
Badanes -3.5
Anderson -5.5
Hampton -11.5

As a whole, we are a combined 1 game under .500. That's an aggregate average of -.125 games under .500.

Sorry for the brevity.

Cleveland (-3) ST LOUIS
CHICAGO (-5) Detroit
CAROLINA (NL) Indianapolis
Ny Giants (-10) MIAMI
TENNESSEE (-7) Oakland
Philadelphia (-1) MINNESOTA
Pittsburgh (-3) CINCINNATI
NY JETS (-3) Buffalo
SAN DIEGO (NL) Houston
TAMPA BAY (NL) Jacksonville
New Orleans (-2.5) SAN FRANCISCO
NEW ENGLAND (-16.5) Washington
DENVER (-3) Green Bay

Week Seven Picks

The week seven picks are attached in the email.

On to everyone's favorite category, unanimous selections.

Unanimous:
Baltimore (-3) over BUFFALO
CINCINNATI (-6) over Ny Jets

Near Unanimous:
SEATTLE (-9) over St. Louis (only Flip likes Willie 'Flipper' Anderson's old squad)
Pittsburgh (-3.5) over DENVER (only Phil G took the home dogs)

Looks like we may need some local adjusting for national lines. Out of six weeks and eight people picking, the Bengals have been picked a TOTAL of 6 times. That's 6 picks out of 48. Wow!

Week Seven Lines

Here are the week seven lines:

WASHINGTON (-8) Arizona
NEW ORLEANS (-9) Atlanta
Baltimore (-3) BUFFALO
DALLAS (-9.5) Minnesota
New England (-16.5) MIAMI
NY GIANTS (-9.5) San Francisco
DETROIT (-2) Tampa Bay
Tennessee (-1.5) HOUSTON
OAKLAND (-3) Kansas City
CINCINNATI (-6) Ny Jets
PHILADELPHIA (-5.5) Chicago
SEATTLE (-9) St. Louis
Pittsburgh (-3.5) DENVER
Indianapolis (-3) JACKSONVILLE

Please have these picks into me via email by Saturday evening (I need to send them out first thing Sunday AM, as I'm playing 36 at Columbia Country Club [equally known as the site of the 1921 US Open and Dav's First Hole in One] and will be out of the house from 8am to 6pm).

Also, if you want to participate in the virtual bookie, please POST (not email) your 'cash' picks as a comment on the Dav'sChallenge Site. Feel free to bet on any wager you can find at www.bodoglife.com. Please also remember, you each have a virtual balance of $10K. Each week, you must put 1/2 your nut in play. Chris Martin has already sent in his picks, and I'll be posting these on the site.

That reminds me. A special pickem nod to the Honeymooners Chris and Erica. They are down in Cabo San Lucas in Baja California enjoying a little R&R. Have a great weekend you two!

Ian's Idea ... The Virtual Bookie

Ian, I think you have a fantastic idea.

Here's the way it will work. It will start fresh, now. You each will be given a fictious account of $10,000. Each week, you must put 50% of your total nut in play on some games. You can bet all 50% on one game, you can spread it out among 10 games.

I'll be your virtual bookie and break your virtual thumbs for lack of virtual payment.

I can also post money lines (ie. you bet on the winner of the game outright, but get adjusted odds) and various MLB, CFB or other action. You can also post to the blog a comment with any bet you find on USA Today.

Sounds good? I think so too.

Week Six Results

On Friday, Flip told me that he was disgusted with his last two weeks' performance and he needed a solid effort to right the ship. He decided to pick an entire slate of favorites. Interesting strategy. I warned him, stating that this has been the year of the dog, with the underdogs going 41-29-4 so far. He stuck with his pick of all favorites. Good call for him. Props.

After a four game losing streak, the favorites carried the week going 7-4-2. They had not won a week since Week 1.

The two Chris's tied for the best week at 7-4-2, with Martin picking a slightly more exciting (though not more successful) combination of chalk and dogs. Props to both of them.

Tyler (2-9-2) brought up the rear this week with the second to worst week of any participant this season. Only a NY Giants win last night kept him ahead of Anderson's Week Four performance.

For our Wisdom of Crowds pick (note: this is a different from the aggregate), we went 5-5-2 to continue our even slate of 33-33-6. Average Rules!

Here are the above/below .500 standings:

Frank 6.5
Martin 4.5
Hanley 3.5
Landes 0.5
Tyler -2.5
Badanes -4.5
Flip -6.5
Matt -9.5

Fun Fact: Against the spread, the Pats are 6-0.

The Pats line ON THE ROAD against the Dolphins opened at 14 points. It has already moved to 16.5 after one day of betting. Heavy, heavy action on the Patriots side. I wonder and have spent ten minutes searching the internet (with no results) to find what was the largest spread in NFL history.

Pick Six (Week that Is)

The full rundown of picks are attached in the email.

Lot of local pride out there. The Ohio teams were picked 15-1 (only Tyler supported the Dolphins over the Browns)

Unanimous
Bengals (-3) over CHIEFS

Near
CLEVELAND (-5) over Miami (Tyler likes Cleo Lemon)
Philly (-3) over NY JETS (Ian likes the Man-Genius)
ARIZONA (-4) over Carolina (Phil likes Vinny, Vidi, Vici)

As said and proved last week, watch out for those unanimous picks. We went 1-3-1 last week.

On the game of the week, here's where we stand:
New England - Chris, Dave, Mike, Matt, Chris M, and Ian
Dallas - Phil and Tyler

Week Six Lines

Cincinnati (-3) KANSAS CITY
JACKSONVILLE (-6.5) Houston
CLEVELAND (-5) Miami
CHICAGO (-5) Minnesota
Philadelphia (-3) NY JETS
BALTIMORE (-9.5) St. Louis
TAMPA BAY (-3) Tennessee
GREEN BAY (-3) Washington
ARIZONA (-4) Carolina
New England (-4.5) DALLAS
SAN DIEGO (-10) Oakland
SEATTLE (-6.5) New Orleans
Ny Giants (-3) ATLANTA

Will anyone, ANYONE take the Cowboys? Does that line seem small?
Have to like the Bengals to bounce back. I'm guessing this as a unanimous game.
Huge, HUGE game for the Skins. Are they for real?

Wednesday Lines

NLCS
Rockies -130
D'Backs +110

ALCS
Indians +145
Red Sox -165

MICHIGAN (-6) Purdue
CINCINNATI (-10) Louisville (66.5)
MIAMI OH (-2.5) Bowling Green
Boston College (-13) NOTRE DAME

Any locks out there? Where would you bet your rent? Comments please.

New Vs. 500 Standings

Week Five Results

A very ho-hum week out there for the pickem crew...

As Phil mentioned in his comment to my post on Sunday, our 'unanimous' selections went 1-3-1. Be very wary of the wisdom of crowds. When Conventional Wisdom goes one way, smart bettors go the other.

The best that anyone could muster this week was 7-6-1. Very tepid congratulations go to Dav, Ian, Mike and Phil for achieving that mark.

I didn't want to jinx him, but I'll do so anyway:
Major dap for Ian for starting the first five weeks of the season without a single losing week. He's a bookie's worst nightmare.

Flip earned the dubious distinction of finishing with the worst record two weeks in a row. Don't worry, Dav did the same in weeks one and two. He's currently righting his ship.

Overall Standings (vs. 500)
Ian 7
Hanley 4
ChrisM 3
Tyler 1
Landes 0
Dav -4
Flip -7
Matt -10

Big week out there locally as the Redskins match up against the Packers, fresh off their loss to Chicago. The early line shows the home Pack as a 3 point favorite, which means Vegas says these teams are exactly equal. Initial thoughts? Post in the comments.

Was Dallas looking ahead? Winning by an onsides kick, drive and game winning field goal(s) [Chicken-shit move Dick Jauron], Dallas certainly did not look like the cream of the NFC. What will happen when the irresistible force AND the immovable object of New England's offense and defense come to Texas Stadium? Predictions for both the game and what the opening line will be? Post in the comments.

Cincinnati (-3) KANSAS CITY
JACKSONVILLE (-6.5) Houston
CLEVELAND (-5) Miami
CHICAGO (-5) Minnesota
Philadelphia (-3) NY JETS
BALTIMORE (-9.5) St. Louis
TAMPA BAY (-3) Tennessee
GREEN BAY (-3) Washington
ARIZONA (-4) Carolina
New England (NL) DALLAS
SAN DIEGO (-10) Oakland
SEATTLE (-6.5) New Orleans
Ny Giants (-3) ATLANTA

Week Five Picks

The week five picks are attached in the email.

Notable picks:

Unanimous selections

NEW ORLEANS (-3) over Carolina


Near-Unanimous Selections:

Detroit (+3.5) over WASHINGTON (Mike the only dissenter)
HOUSTON (-5.5) over Miami (Ian the only holdout)
Arizona (-3) over ST LOUIS (Matt the only Ram-backer)
NY GIANTS (-3) over Ny Jets (Dav the only Man-genius)


As always, watch out for those unanimous and near-unanimous selections.

They can bite you!

Who Pays the Vig?

Phil brought up an interesting point yesterday in the comments (first commenter status!) when he said that the winner keeps the vig. That’s the traditional thought… the one that would make sense… the loser is the only one who pays up and the winner is the only one who collects… But, not so fast my friends! There’s actually quite an intellectual debate out there over whether the loser or the winner of bets technically pays the bookie his vig.

One could look at it one of two ways.

The loser pays:
The loser had to lay $110 to win $100. That $10 is his payment to the bookie for the privilege of placing a bet. Of his $110, $10 was a lost sunk cost and only $100 was actively wagered. He is the one who pays the vig.

The winner pays:
The winner had to lay $110 to win $100. Instead of getting true odds and getting paid $220, he only receives the $100 back (Total of $210). He spends that $10 for the privilege of placing a bet. He is the one who pays the vig.

So, which is it??

The answer, like most things, lies in the murky middle. Only through a thorough examination of each individual bettor’s tendencies towards true odds and vig-ed odds can a calculation be made.

Week Five Lines

NEW ORLEANS (-3) Carolina
Jacksonville (-2.5) KANSAS CITY
WASHINGTON (-3.5) Detroit
TENNESSEE (-8) Atlanta
HOUSTON (-5.5) Miami
PITTSBURGH (-6) Seattle
NEW ENGLAND (-16.5) Cleveland
Arizona (-3) ST LOUIS
NY GIANTS (-3) Ny Jets
INDIANAPOLIS (-10) Tampa Bay
DENVER (-1.5) San Diego
Baltimore (-3.5) SAN FRANCISCO
GREEN BAY (-3.5) Chicago
Dallas (-10) BUFFALO


As discussed in yesterday’s blog, these lines are set to induce equal action on each side and hopefully create an equal chance that either event will happen. That being said, who is willing to admit that they will simply flip a coin for each pick this week? Or go with the home team in each game? Or go with the road team? Or the favorite? Or the underdog? The truth is picking one of these strategies and sticking to it probably wont win you the overall pickem challenge title, but I guarantee you wouldn’t come in last. You’d be stuck somewhere in that murky middle. So try it… or don’t.

Except the Patriots. Whatever the spread, however high it seems, they always cover. Never pick against them.

A Few Thoughts on Flip’s 2-12…

In all sincerity, I don’t think I gave Flip enough dap for his 2-12 record this week. On the phone yesterday with Chris and Mike, I told them that I’m just as impressed with a 2-12 week as I would be with a 12-2 one. (Unfortunately, Flip, the win column is not.) The reason of my admiration is that his 2-12 record was such a statistical anomaly.

In the business of sports handicapping, the goal by Sheridan or other line-setters is to create a spread that will generate equal action on either side, so that the house will get paid the 10% vigorish on each losing bet. Thus, the house can expect to earn 5% on the total amount of bets placed. As a gambler, you need to pick 11 games right out of 21 just to break even. Each NFL season, there are 256 games. If you were to pick 128 games correctly and 128 games incorrectly, you would be in the hole 128 * 1.1 * x (where x is the average amount you wagered per game). Now you know why the sports books offer free drinks…

In our league, we don’t have a vigorish (Heck, we don’t even have any stakes). Consider this - if we continued our pickem challenge into our old age and aggregated the totals, I would wager that all of us would be within 1% of picking half the games correctly. This is why Flip’s 2-12 record stands out. Using binomial distribution, there is a 0.64% chance that one would be either 2-12 or 12-2 any given week. That’s only 6 chances out of 1000. With all likelihood, this will be the best and the worst week of any of us has this season.

Just as a fun note: the chances of picking all sixteen games correctly?

.026%

As statistically unlikely Flip’s week was, it is still nearly 25 times more likely than picking every single game right (or, don’t forget, just as impressive, wrong).

Vs. 500 Graph

Here's a line graph of us above/below .500

These are always on the first page of the excel sheet.

Dav

Wins Per Week

Here's a chart of wins per week....

Week Four Results

Hello All-

It's a bird! It's a plane! It's Supe .... no wait.... it actually is a bird shitting on me at Paul Brown Stadium. What a metaphor for the start of the Bengals season.

Dav's Pickem Challenge completes its fourth week with the below standings:

Frank 6.5
Hanley 3.5
ChrisM 3.5
Tyler 2.5
Landes -0.5
Flip -4.5
Dav -4.5
Matt -7.5

Tip of the Golden Sombrero this week to Flip who managed to go 2-12, easily the worst performance of the year so far, save Norv Turner. Flip, on behalf of Matt and myself, welcome to the below .500 club. We're about to lose Phil, but we're glad you are aboard (or below).

Fun charts and graphs are attached with week by week results and above/below .500 line graph. Exciting stuff. Ken Clark would be proud.

I'm collecting on Phil's gamble of the Padres to win the NL Pennant. Pretty easy to do that when you can't win the play-in game. Though I believe the entire region of Southern California is screaming for a replay of Holliday's slide...

A special Pickem nod to the eldest member of the Pickem crew, Mr. Miguel Hankley who has left the snack shack on the turn of his twenties and is ready to start the back nine. Mike turns 26 next Monday. All in the area can join us (or phone in well wishes) on Saturday for a true Hanley-doubleheader. Cubbies-D'backs at 6:00p then ND-UCLA at 8p. Let's hope for a pair of wins.

Week Three Results

Hello All-

Props to Phil for taking a 3-1 dog in the "Dean of Mean" Keith Jardine and emerging victorious over Chuck Lidell.
Props to Ian and Flip for nailing the three game college football special exactly.
Props to Dav for hitting his three game teaser on Sunday from Bailey's Sports Pub.
Props to our waitresses, Jeremiah Trotter and Terrell Owens. Zero props to the Direct TV reception.

This week's big fat winner was Dav who was 9-5 with two pushes. That brough him to 4.5 games below .500.

Here are the standing above/below .500:

Frank 4.5
Tyler 3.5
Hanley 2.5
Chris M 1.5
Chris A 0.5
Landes -1.5
Matt H -4.5
Dav -4.5

The attached worksheet is bursting with game info, results and cool charts that measure each person's progress week to week and relation to .500. I encourage everyone to download it onto their machine at least once per week.

Thought of the week:

Over a conference call, Mike, Chris and I discussed the potential that in an final move by the outgoing lame duck commisioner Tagliabue, he perhaps had an 'invisible hand' in play in the Saints resurgence last season. Sleeping on it, we present a few points for discussion:

1) Selling the Dome -- Was this not an NFL backed plan of reduced/free tickets
2) Acquiring Sean Payton -- Was he guaranteed more money from 201 Park Ave in exchange for coaching the Saints
3) Drew Brees -- Did the NFL know something more about the recovery than the Doplhins and Nick Saban?
4) Bush/Williams -- Did the NFL ask the Texans to not draft the popular Bush to leave him for the Saints?
5) Marquis Coleston -- Did the NFL have inside skinny on this unheralded wideout?

Or... as some have countered, is it just a result of playing in the talent poor NFC, and NFC South in particular.

Discuss amongst yourselves.


Here is the jumpstart on next week's lines:

Props to Dave on the same call for NAILING the exact 7.5 point spread of the Bengals/Pats game.

Week Two Results

Ah, yes, we should have saw that coming (TWSS!)

After week one, teams either look a) good or b) bad. This is because their entire reputation is based on one body of work, a single game from week 1. Each team can only either win or lose, and thus each team is unfortunately rated better or worse than they truly are based on this one result. This causes the lines in week 2 to be too heavily skewed towards the favorites. As we know from Rozelle's dream of parity, almost all the teams are never as truly bad or as truly good as one would think. In week two, those teams often regress to the mean and we get a lot of underdogs covering. This year, in week two, if you would have just picked every upset you would have gone 12-3. Are you still reading this? You shouldn't be because you are taking handicapping anaylsis from someone who managed to get worse from 5-10-1 to 4-12.

Expect the lines to be adjusted and more favorites covering the points next week. Just a hunch.

Here are the standings:

Ian 20-11-1 10-6
Mike 18-13-1 7-9
Tyler 18-13-1 7-9
Anderson 17-14-1 8-8
Martin 17-14-1 5-11
Landes 13-18-1 4-12
Hampton 13-18-1 7-9
Badanes 9-22-1 4-12


Here is the early preview on next week's lines. Enjoy the spread (TWSS!) Remember, lines are finalized on Thursday AM.

Week One Results

Dangerous week out there for some. Here are the standings after week one.

Tip of the cap to LTJG Martin who managed to get out of the gate with a .781 clip, all from the bridge of the USS Pearl Harbor. Very impressive

Martin, C. 12-3-1
Hanley 11-4-1
Martin, T. 11-4-1
Frank 10-5-1
Anderson 9-6-1
Landes 9-6-1
Hampton 6-9-1
Badanes 5-10-1

Simmons 7-8-1
W.O.C Pick 8-3-1 (WOC is the 'Wisdom of Crowds' Pick; it is the consensus of our picks [if possible])

Also, for some of you who care about further metrics:
Favorites: 9-5-1
Underdogs: 5-9-1

Home Chalk: 7-3-1
Road Chalk: 2-2
Home Dogs: 2-2
Road Dogs: 3-7-1

Welcome to Dav's Pickem Challenge 2.0

Guys-

I've decided to create a blog to go along with our challenge. This is a place where we can post comments, jock winners and jone losers. Also, it's a place where I can post these charts and graphs that I create each week on Excel.

Hope you all enjoy.

Dav.