Tuesday, October 2, 2007

Week Two Results

Ah, yes, we should have saw that coming (TWSS!)

After week one, teams either look a) good or b) bad. This is because their entire reputation is based on one body of work, a single game from week 1. Each team can only either win or lose, and thus each team is unfortunately rated better or worse than they truly are based on this one result. This causes the lines in week 2 to be too heavily skewed towards the favorites. As we know from Rozelle's dream of parity, almost all the teams are never as truly bad or as truly good as one would think. In week two, those teams often regress to the mean and we get a lot of underdogs covering. This year, in week two, if you would have just picked every upset you would have gone 12-3. Are you still reading this? You shouldn't be because you are taking handicapping anaylsis from someone who managed to get worse from 5-10-1 to 4-12.

Expect the lines to be adjusted and more favorites covering the points next week. Just a hunch.

Here are the standings:

Ian 20-11-1 10-6
Mike 18-13-1 7-9
Tyler 18-13-1 7-9
Anderson 17-14-1 8-8
Martin 17-14-1 5-11
Landes 13-18-1 4-12
Hampton 13-18-1 7-9
Badanes 9-22-1 4-12


Here is the early preview on next week's lines. Enjoy the spread (TWSS!) Remember, lines are finalized on Thursday AM.

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