Week Eight Results

Props to Tyler for having the best week out there; after a week off in Week 7, he went 10-3 in Week 8. Big props to Ty.

Props to Dav. Consistency is the name of the game. Over the past four weeks, he has the best record.

Standings
Frank 8
ChrisM 6
Hanley 5
Tyler 1
Phil L 0
DaveB -2
ChrisA -6
Matt -11

Interesting point of the week:
If the only mechanism you used for picking games was to pick Patriots (8-0 ATS) and the underdogs (57-51-6 ATS), you would be 65-43-6, which is 11 games above .500. That would put you in first place in our pickem challenge, three games ahead of E-on. Sometimes, it's easier than you think...

The Game of the Century opened with the Colts as 3.5 point home underdogs. Heavy betting on the Pats pushed the line a whole point to 4.5. It could move to a whole touchdown and I wouldn't be scared. After getting burned three times thinking, hey, there's no way that the Pats can cover that number, I'm taking them every time. As Miguel said, ride that horse till it bucks you off.

Early Look at Week 9 Lines:
Washington (-3.5) NY JETS
Green Bay (NL) KANSAS CITY
TAMPA BAY (-3.5) Arizona
TENNESSEE (-4.5) Carolina
ATLANTA (-3) San Francisco
NEW ORLEANS (-3.5) Jacksonville
DETROIT (NL) Denver
BUFFALO (-2) Cincinnati
San Diego (-7) MINNESOTA
CLEVELAND (-2) Seattle
New England (-4.5) INDIANAPOLIS
OAKLAND (-3) Houston
Dallas (-3) PHILADELPHIA
PITTSBURGH (-9) Baltimore

Week Eight Picks

Attached in the email are all the week eight picks.

There's a lot of division out there over what will happen this week. Out of 13 games, four were picked evenly (4-4) by the pickem crew, six games were picked 5-3, one 6-2, and two 7-1.

Everyone's favorite section, Unanimous Selections:

Cleveland (-3) over ST LOUIS (Only Phil likes the Rams)
Ny Giants (-9) over MIAMI (London) (Only Hampton likes the Fins)

Have fun out there today fellas.

The Virtual Bookie, pt. 2

Here are the standings:

Phil $9,120.
Martin $9,700.
Dav $6,000.
Ian $11,850.
Ham $5,950.
Mike $8,250.

Any bets out there this weekend?

Vs. 500 Standings

Week Seven Results

Big week out there for pickem players to get healthy. We went a combined 56-42. That's solid. That's the second best combined week. All pickem players except one had a winning record.

Tip of the pickem cap to Miguel.

Mike went 10-4 to narrow the gap on first place E-On to one game.

He also dominated Phil in Fantasy Football to advance to 7-0. Watch out for bleedcubbieblue.

On the virtual gambling front, a post coming later.

Frank 7.5
Hanley 6.5
Martin 5.5
Landes 2.5
Tyler -2.5
Badanes -3.5
Anderson -5.5
Hampton -11.5

As a whole, we are a combined 1 game under .500. That's an aggregate average of -.125 games under .500.

Sorry for the brevity.

Cleveland (-3) ST LOUIS
CHICAGO (-5) Detroit
CAROLINA (NL) Indianapolis
Ny Giants (-10) MIAMI
TENNESSEE (-7) Oakland
Philadelphia (-1) MINNESOTA
Pittsburgh (-3) CINCINNATI
NY JETS (-3) Buffalo
SAN DIEGO (NL) Houston
TAMPA BAY (NL) Jacksonville
New Orleans (-2.5) SAN FRANCISCO
NEW ENGLAND (-16.5) Washington
DENVER (-3) Green Bay

Week Seven Picks

The week seven picks are attached in the email.

On to everyone's favorite category, unanimous selections.

Unanimous:
Baltimore (-3) over BUFFALO
CINCINNATI (-6) over Ny Jets

Near Unanimous:
SEATTLE (-9) over St. Louis (only Flip likes Willie 'Flipper' Anderson's old squad)
Pittsburgh (-3.5) over DENVER (only Phil G took the home dogs)

Looks like we may need some local adjusting for national lines. Out of six weeks and eight people picking, the Bengals have been picked a TOTAL of 6 times. That's 6 picks out of 48. Wow!

Week Seven Lines

Here are the week seven lines:

WASHINGTON (-8) Arizona
NEW ORLEANS (-9) Atlanta
Baltimore (-3) BUFFALO
DALLAS (-9.5) Minnesota
New England (-16.5) MIAMI
NY GIANTS (-9.5) San Francisco
DETROIT (-2) Tampa Bay
Tennessee (-1.5) HOUSTON
OAKLAND (-3) Kansas City
CINCINNATI (-6) Ny Jets
PHILADELPHIA (-5.5) Chicago
SEATTLE (-9) St. Louis
Pittsburgh (-3.5) DENVER
Indianapolis (-3) JACKSONVILLE

Please have these picks into me via email by Saturday evening (I need to send them out first thing Sunday AM, as I'm playing 36 at Columbia Country Club [equally known as the site of the 1921 US Open and Dav's First Hole in One] and will be out of the house from 8am to 6pm).

Also, if you want to participate in the virtual bookie, please POST (not email) your 'cash' picks as a comment on the Dav'sChallenge Site. Feel free to bet on any wager you can find at www.bodoglife.com. Please also remember, you each have a virtual balance of $10K. Each week, you must put 1/2 your nut in play. Chris Martin has already sent in his picks, and I'll be posting these on the site.

That reminds me. A special pickem nod to the Honeymooners Chris and Erica. They are down in Cabo San Lucas in Baja California enjoying a little R&R. Have a great weekend you two!

Ian's Idea ... The Virtual Bookie

Ian, I think you have a fantastic idea.

Here's the way it will work. It will start fresh, now. You each will be given a fictious account of $10,000. Each week, you must put 50% of your total nut in play on some games. You can bet all 50% on one game, you can spread it out among 10 games.

I'll be your virtual bookie and break your virtual thumbs for lack of virtual payment.

I can also post money lines (ie. you bet on the winner of the game outright, but get adjusted odds) and various MLB, CFB or other action. You can also post to the blog a comment with any bet you find on USA Today.

Sounds good? I think so too.

Week Six Results

On Friday, Flip told me that he was disgusted with his last two weeks' performance and he needed a solid effort to right the ship. He decided to pick an entire slate of favorites. Interesting strategy. I warned him, stating that this has been the year of the dog, with the underdogs going 41-29-4 so far. He stuck with his pick of all favorites. Good call for him. Props.

After a four game losing streak, the favorites carried the week going 7-4-2. They had not won a week since Week 1.

The two Chris's tied for the best week at 7-4-2, with Martin picking a slightly more exciting (though not more successful) combination of chalk and dogs. Props to both of them.

Tyler (2-9-2) brought up the rear this week with the second to worst week of any participant this season. Only a NY Giants win last night kept him ahead of Anderson's Week Four performance.

For our Wisdom of Crowds pick (note: this is a different from the aggregate), we went 5-5-2 to continue our even slate of 33-33-6. Average Rules!

Here are the above/below .500 standings:

Frank 6.5
Martin 4.5
Hanley 3.5
Landes 0.5
Tyler -2.5
Badanes -4.5
Flip -6.5
Matt -9.5

Fun Fact: Against the spread, the Pats are 6-0.

The Pats line ON THE ROAD against the Dolphins opened at 14 points. It has already moved to 16.5 after one day of betting. Heavy, heavy action on the Patriots side. I wonder and have spent ten minutes searching the internet (with no results) to find what was the largest spread in NFL history.

Pick Six (Week that Is)

The full rundown of picks are attached in the email.

Lot of local pride out there. The Ohio teams were picked 15-1 (only Tyler supported the Dolphins over the Browns)

Unanimous
Bengals (-3) over CHIEFS

Near
CLEVELAND (-5) over Miami (Tyler likes Cleo Lemon)
Philly (-3) over NY JETS (Ian likes the Man-Genius)
ARIZONA (-4) over Carolina (Phil likes Vinny, Vidi, Vici)

As said and proved last week, watch out for those unanimous picks. We went 1-3-1 last week.

On the game of the week, here's where we stand:
New England - Chris, Dave, Mike, Matt, Chris M, and Ian
Dallas - Phil and Tyler

Week Six Lines

Cincinnati (-3) KANSAS CITY
JACKSONVILLE (-6.5) Houston
CLEVELAND (-5) Miami
CHICAGO (-5) Minnesota
Philadelphia (-3) NY JETS
BALTIMORE (-9.5) St. Louis
TAMPA BAY (-3) Tennessee
GREEN BAY (-3) Washington
ARIZONA (-4) Carolina
New England (-4.5) DALLAS
SAN DIEGO (-10) Oakland
SEATTLE (-6.5) New Orleans
Ny Giants (-3) ATLANTA

Will anyone, ANYONE take the Cowboys? Does that line seem small?
Have to like the Bengals to bounce back. I'm guessing this as a unanimous game.
Huge, HUGE game for the Skins. Are they for real?

Wednesday Lines

NLCS
Rockies -130
D'Backs +110

ALCS
Indians +145
Red Sox -165

MICHIGAN (-6) Purdue
CINCINNATI (-10) Louisville (66.5)
MIAMI OH (-2.5) Bowling Green
Boston College (-13) NOTRE DAME

Any locks out there? Where would you bet your rent? Comments please.

New Vs. 500 Standings

Week Five Results

A very ho-hum week out there for the pickem crew...

As Phil mentioned in his comment to my post on Sunday, our 'unanimous' selections went 1-3-1. Be very wary of the wisdom of crowds. When Conventional Wisdom goes one way, smart bettors go the other.

The best that anyone could muster this week was 7-6-1. Very tepid congratulations go to Dav, Ian, Mike and Phil for achieving that mark.

I didn't want to jinx him, but I'll do so anyway:
Major dap for Ian for starting the first five weeks of the season without a single losing week. He's a bookie's worst nightmare.

Flip earned the dubious distinction of finishing with the worst record two weeks in a row. Don't worry, Dav did the same in weeks one and two. He's currently righting his ship.

Overall Standings (vs. 500)
Ian 7
Hanley 4
ChrisM 3
Tyler 1
Landes 0
Dav -4
Flip -7
Matt -10

Big week out there locally as the Redskins match up against the Packers, fresh off their loss to Chicago. The early line shows the home Pack as a 3 point favorite, which means Vegas says these teams are exactly equal. Initial thoughts? Post in the comments.

Was Dallas looking ahead? Winning by an onsides kick, drive and game winning field goal(s) [Chicken-shit move Dick Jauron], Dallas certainly did not look like the cream of the NFC. What will happen when the irresistible force AND the immovable object of New England's offense and defense come to Texas Stadium? Predictions for both the game and what the opening line will be? Post in the comments.

Cincinnati (-3) KANSAS CITY
JACKSONVILLE (-6.5) Houston
CLEVELAND (-5) Miami
CHICAGO (-5) Minnesota
Philadelphia (-3) NY JETS
BALTIMORE (-9.5) St. Louis
TAMPA BAY (-3) Tennessee
GREEN BAY (-3) Washington
ARIZONA (-4) Carolina
New England (NL) DALLAS
SAN DIEGO (-10) Oakland
SEATTLE (-6.5) New Orleans
Ny Giants (-3) ATLANTA

Week Five Picks

The week five picks are attached in the email.

Notable picks:

Unanimous selections

NEW ORLEANS (-3) over Carolina


Near-Unanimous Selections:

Detroit (+3.5) over WASHINGTON (Mike the only dissenter)
HOUSTON (-5.5) over Miami (Ian the only holdout)
Arizona (-3) over ST LOUIS (Matt the only Ram-backer)
NY GIANTS (-3) over Ny Jets (Dav the only Man-genius)


As always, watch out for those unanimous and near-unanimous selections.

They can bite you!

Who Pays the Vig?

Phil brought up an interesting point yesterday in the comments (first commenter status!) when he said that the winner keeps the vig. That’s the traditional thought… the one that would make sense… the loser is the only one who pays up and the winner is the only one who collects… But, not so fast my friends! There’s actually quite an intellectual debate out there over whether the loser or the winner of bets technically pays the bookie his vig.

One could look at it one of two ways.

The loser pays:
The loser had to lay $110 to win $100. That $10 is his payment to the bookie for the privilege of placing a bet. Of his $110, $10 was a lost sunk cost and only $100 was actively wagered. He is the one who pays the vig.

The winner pays:
The winner had to lay $110 to win $100. Instead of getting true odds and getting paid $220, he only receives the $100 back (Total of $210). He spends that $10 for the privilege of placing a bet. He is the one who pays the vig.

So, which is it??

The answer, like most things, lies in the murky middle. Only through a thorough examination of each individual bettor’s tendencies towards true odds and vig-ed odds can a calculation be made.

Week Five Lines

NEW ORLEANS (-3) Carolina
Jacksonville (-2.5) KANSAS CITY
WASHINGTON (-3.5) Detroit
TENNESSEE (-8) Atlanta
HOUSTON (-5.5) Miami
PITTSBURGH (-6) Seattle
NEW ENGLAND (-16.5) Cleveland
Arizona (-3) ST LOUIS
NY GIANTS (-3) Ny Jets
INDIANAPOLIS (-10) Tampa Bay
DENVER (-1.5) San Diego
Baltimore (-3.5) SAN FRANCISCO
GREEN BAY (-3.5) Chicago
Dallas (-10) BUFFALO


As discussed in yesterday’s blog, these lines are set to induce equal action on each side and hopefully create an equal chance that either event will happen. That being said, who is willing to admit that they will simply flip a coin for each pick this week? Or go with the home team in each game? Or go with the road team? Or the favorite? Or the underdog? The truth is picking one of these strategies and sticking to it probably wont win you the overall pickem challenge title, but I guarantee you wouldn’t come in last. You’d be stuck somewhere in that murky middle. So try it… or don’t.

Except the Patriots. Whatever the spread, however high it seems, they always cover. Never pick against them.

A Few Thoughts on Flip’s 2-12…

In all sincerity, I don’t think I gave Flip enough dap for his 2-12 record this week. On the phone yesterday with Chris and Mike, I told them that I’m just as impressed with a 2-12 week as I would be with a 12-2 one. (Unfortunately, Flip, the win column is not.) The reason of my admiration is that his 2-12 record was such a statistical anomaly.

In the business of sports handicapping, the goal by Sheridan or other line-setters is to create a spread that will generate equal action on either side, so that the house will get paid the 10% vigorish on each losing bet. Thus, the house can expect to earn 5% on the total amount of bets placed. As a gambler, you need to pick 11 games right out of 21 just to break even. Each NFL season, there are 256 games. If you were to pick 128 games correctly and 128 games incorrectly, you would be in the hole 128 * 1.1 * x (where x is the average amount you wagered per game). Now you know why the sports books offer free drinks…

In our league, we don’t have a vigorish (Heck, we don’t even have any stakes). Consider this - if we continued our pickem challenge into our old age and aggregated the totals, I would wager that all of us would be within 1% of picking half the games correctly. This is why Flip’s 2-12 record stands out. Using binomial distribution, there is a 0.64% chance that one would be either 2-12 or 12-2 any given week. That’s only 6 chances out of 1000. With all likelihood, this will be the best and the worst week of any of us has this season.

Just as a fun note: the chances of picking all sixteen games correctly?

.026%

As statistically unlikely Flip’s week was, it is still nearly 25 times more likely than picking every single game right (or, don’t forget, just as impressive, wrong).

Vs. 500 Graph

Here's a line graph of us above/below .500

These are always on the first page of the excel sheet.

Dav

Wins Per Week

Here's a chart of wins per week....

Week Four Results

Hello All-

It's a bird! It's a plane! It's Supe .... no wait.... it actually is a bird shitting on me at Paul Brown Stadium. What a metaphor for the start of the Bengals season.

Dav's Pickem Challenge completes its fourth week with the below standings:

Frank 6.5
Hanley 3.5
ChrisM 3.5
Tyler 2.5
Landes -0.5
Flip -4.5
Dav -4.5
Matt -7.5

Tip of the Golden Sombrero this week to Flip who managed to go 2-12, easily the worst performance of the year so far, save Norv Turner. Flip, on behalf of Matt and myself, welcome to the below .500 club. We're about to lose Phil, but we're glad you are aboard (or below).

Fun charts and graphs are attached with week by week results and above/below .500 line graph. Exciting stuff. Ken Clark would be proud.

I'm collecting on Phil's gamble of the Padres to win the NL Pennant. Pretty easy to do that when you can't win the play-in game. Though I believe the entire region of Southern California is screaming for a replay of Holliday's slide...

A special Pickem nod to the eldest member of the Pickem crew, Mr. Miguel Hankley who has left the snack shack on the turn of his twenties and is ready to start the back nine. Mike turns 26 next Monday. All in the area can join us (or phone in well wishes) on Saturday for a true Hanley-doubleheader. Cubbies-D'backs at 6:00p then ND-UCLA at 8p. Let's hope for a pair of wins.

Week Three Results

Hello All-

Props to Phil for taking a 3-1 dog in the "Dean of Mean" Keith Jardine and emerging victorious over Chuck Lidell.
Props to Ian and Flip for nailing the three game college football special exactly.
Props to Dav for hitting his three game teaser on Sunday from Bailey's Sports Pub.
Props to our waitresses, Jeremiah Trotter and Terrell Owens. Zero props to the Direct TV reception.

This week's big fat winner was Dav who was 9-5 with two pushes. That brough him to 4.5 games below .500.

Here are the standing above/below .500:

Frank 4.5
Tyler 3.5
Hanley 2.5
Chris M 1.5
Chris A 0.5
Landes -1.5
Matt H -4.5
Dav -4.5

The attached worksheet is bursting with game info, results and cool charts that measure each person's progress week to week and relation to .500. I encourage everyone to download it onto their machine at least once per week.

Thought of the week:

Over a conference call, Mike, Chris and I discussed the potential that in an final move by the outgoing lame duck commisioner Tagliabue, he perhaps had an 'invisible hand' in play in the Saints resurgence last season. Sleeping on it, we present a few points for discussion:

1) Selling the Dome -- Was this not an NFL backed plan of reduced/free tickets
2) Acquiring Sean Payton -- Was he guaranteed more money from 201 Park Ave in exchange for coaching the Saints
3) Drew Brees -- Did the NFL know something more about the recovery than the Doplhins and Nick Saban?
4) Bush/Williams -- Did the NFL ask the Texans to not draft the popular Bush to leave him for the Saints?
5) Marquis Coleston -- Did the NFL have inside skinny on this unheralded wideout?

Or... as some have countered, is it just a result of playing in the talent poor NFC, and NFC South in particular.

Discuss amongst yourselves.


Here is the jumpstart on next week's lines:

Props to Dave on the same call for NAILING the exact 7.5 point spread of the Bengals/Pats game.

Week Two Results

Ah, yes, we should have saw that coming (TWSS!)

After week one, teams either look a) good or b) bad. This is because their entire reputation is based on one body of work, a single game from week 1. Each team can only either win or lose, and thus each team is unfortunately rated better or worse than they truly are based on this one result. This causes the lines in week 2 to be too heavily skewed towards the favorites. As we know from Rozelle's dream of parity, almost all the teams are never as truly bad or as truly good as one would think. In week two, those teams often regress to the mean and we get a lot of underdogs covering. This year, in week two, if you would have just picked every upset you would have gone 12-3. Are you still reading this? You shouldn't be because you are taking handicapping anaylsis from someone who managed to get worse from 5-10-1 to 4-12.

Expect the lines to be adjusted and more favorites covering the points next week. Just a hunch.

Here are the standings:

Ian 20-11-1 10-6
Mike 18-13-1 7-9
Tyler 18-13-1 7-9
Anderson 17-14-1 8-8
Martin 17-14-1 5-11
Landes 13-18-1 4-12
Hampton 13-18-1 7-9
Badanes 9-22-1 4-12


Here is the early preview on next week's lines. Enjoy the spread (TWSS!) Remember, lines are finalized on Thursday AM.

Week One Results

Dangerous week out there for some. Here are the standings after week one.

Tip of the cap to LTJG Martin who managed to get out of the gate with a .781 clip, all from the bridge of the USS Pearl Harbor. Very impressive

Martin, C. 12-3-1
Hanley 11-4-1
Martin, T. 11-4-1
Frank 10-5-1
Anderson 9-6-1
Landes 9-6-1
Hampton 6-9-1
Badanes 5-10-1

Simmons 7-8-1
W.O.C Pick 8-3-1 (WOC is the 'Wisdom of Crowds' Pick; it is the consensus of our picks [if possible])

Also, for some of you who care about further metrics:
Favorites: 9-5-1
Underdogs: 5-9-1

Home Chalk: 7-3-1
Road Chalk: 2-2
Home Dogs: 2-2
Road Dogs: 3-7-1

Welcome to Dav's Pickem Challenge 2.0

Guys-

I've decided to create a blog to go along with our challenge. This is a place where we can post comments, jock winners and jone losers. Also, it's a place where I can post these charts and graphs that I create each week on Excel.

Hope you all enjoy.

Dav.